Letting go can be hard, and even harder for individuals shored up in the lofty heights of fame and popularity. None of those criteria necessarily hold true for the Bheeshma pitamah of the Hindutva movement, Lal Krishna Advani. Advani, an octogenarian, who would be a nonagenarian by the time he retires from his dream of the responsibility of being the prime minister of India. Advani is, and will always remain a polarizing figure in the annals of Indian politics- often derided, yet well respected for stabilizing an opposition, to the Congress, and its Gandhi dynasty.
Getting back to the bidding adieu part, Advani has clearly missed a sizable chunk of the recent electoral results, for only then could he stubbornly stick to his demand of being acknowledged as the tallest leader of his party, the BJP. A party, which is facing somewhat of an existential crisis. A party, which has been reduced once again to ruling the hindi heartland, with virtually no presence in the south or the northeast. While the BJP has a plethora of local and national leaders of face value and recognition, it also has perhaps too many of them for its own good. Nobody saw the genesis of this crisis coming. After the shocking defeat in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections (which left me bewildered, and my friends at our coaching class confused), the outgoing prime minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, was forced to step aside due to health complications. As has been well documented, the opportunity was ripe for Advani to take charge, and tide over the embarrassment coming at the heels of the 'India Shining' campaign. Instead, Advani ended up committing a mistake that made him persona non grata in the eyes of the RSS. Calling Jinnah a respected lawyer and founder of Pakistan is one thing, to call him a secular leader, when he split India along the lines of religion and led to a still-persisting unease at the border, is career suicide. The Indian public and media took those comments for what they were: the desperate attempts of a leader who was finally given charge of the main opposition party, but had spent his career under the shadow of the more affable Vajpayee, still beloved to most Indians. The UPA I policies favored the masses, while the BJP faltered in chalking out a clear progressive policy to appeal to the voters. The result: Congress sailed past the 200 mark for the first time since 1991, while the BJP shrunk from 143 to 118, in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections.
Any other leader would have seen the writing on the wall. Unfortunately, Indian politics fails to throw up new leaders, unless they have their father or siblings in positions of power, and such leaders end up playing to the whims of seasoned politicians (look no further than Akhilesh Singh Yadav, or Omar Abdullah). Hence, Advani persisted. He was booted out of the post of Leader of opposition, but made the chairman of the NDA parliamentary committee. In the meantime, Narendra Modi was doing his best to cleanse himself of the taint of the 2002 riots. Gujarat was consistently growing, investors were flocking in, and his own personal clout was now beginning to overshadow the party in the state. No further proof was required of his growing popularity, than when the UK government decided to end its boycott of Modi, and open negotiations about business possibilities in Gujarat. The urban middles-class voter, tired of buying milk at Rs. 40/liter and pulses at Rs 120/kg, knew that Rahul Baba and his trite 'Discover India' tour just won't cut any more. Modi thumped the opposition in Gujarat in 2013, and is now looking set to give the ruling dispensation a mighty tussle next year.
This brings us to the latest, and probably the last controversy, Advani would ever stir. Man, this guys career is a roll-call of controversies, right from his early career to the last elections, so this sounds odd to me writing it! Advani is hoping that Modi would be unacceptable to the majority of the NDA alliance, which would be the need of the hour post-elections. The BJP can hardly dream of winning 272 seats on its own, even if it wins every seat in UP, Gujarat, MP, and Chattisgarh. However, it doesn't need to. Previous experience dictates that the fickle regional parties, that have no loyalty to anybody, but only their self-interest in mind, wouldn't mind supporting the BJP in lieu of rewarding portfolios, if it can get to the 200-220 mark on its own. That would mean that the urban voter would need to vote heavily in favor of the BJP, more so than it already does, in order to make that possibility come true. As stated earlier, Modi has the public in his hands right now. He has an agenda, even though critics would argue that it is simplistic in nature, but an agenda nonetheless, to give a boost to the slumbering economy, and regain the faith of the public that actually pays taxes and faces power cuts and water shortages in return. Advani on the other hand, has no appeal among the youth, many of whom will be turning out at the voting booth for the first time next year, and more importantly, already had his shot at immortality in 2009. The fire that Advani displayed in 1991, seems to have vanished altogether (not that there is anything unnatural about that happening with age). Modi is just firing up on the national stage!
There appears to be a ceasefire called for the moment, but the NDA alliance is already starting to fizzle. JD(U)'s impending departure will leave a deep dent in the party's prospect in Bihar, a state that voted in large numbers for the alliance in the last election. Moreover, both the BJP and the JD(U) run the risk of cutting into each other's vote share, much to the apparent joy of the RJD, and maybe Congress. The message from the BJP cadres is clear. Modi's ascension is a risk worth taking, for another defeat next year would severely dent any hopes of making a comeback to power in the future. For us masses, this will condemn us to a long period of the Gandhi family rule, one that seems akin to surrendering your democratic choice at the doorsteps of a dynasty.
PS: Summer is a great time for going to the movies and picking up a book. Here are two personal recommendations in each category.
Getting back to the bidding adieu part, Advani has clearly missed a sizable chunk of the recent electoral results, for only then could he stubbornly stick to his demand of being acknowledged as the tallest leader of his party, the BJP. A party, which is facing somewhat of an existential crisis. A party, which has been reduced once again to ruling the hindi heartland, with virtually no presence in the south or the northeast. While the BJP has a plethora of local and national leaders of face value and recognition, it also has perhaps too many of them for its own good. Nobody saw the genesis of this crisis coming. After the shocking defeat in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections (which left me bewildered, and my friends at our coaching class confused), the outgoing prime minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, was forced to step aside due to health complications. As has been well documented, the opportunity was ripe for Advani to take charge, and tide over the embarrassment coming at the heels of the 'India Shining' campaign. Instead, Advani ended up committing a mistake that made him persona non grata in the eyes of the RSS. Calling Jinnah a respected lawyer and founder of Pakistan is one thing, to call him a secular leader, when he split India along the lines of religion and led to a still-persisting unease at the border, is career suicide. The Indian public and media took those comments for what they were: the desperate attempts of a leader who was finally given charge of the main opposition party, but had spent his career under the shadow of the more affable Vajpayee, still beloved to most Indians. The UPA I policies favored the masses, while the BJP faltered in chalking out a clear progressive policy to appeal to the voters. The result: Congress sailed past the 200 mark for the first time since 1991, while the BJP shrunk from 143 to 118, in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections.
Any other leader would have seen the writing on the wall. Unfortunately, Indian politics fails to throw up new leaders, unless they have their father or siblings in positions of power, and such leaders end up playing to the whims of seasoned politicians (look no further than Akhilesh Singh Yadav, or Omar Abdullah). Hence, Advani persisted. He was booted out of the post of Leader of opposition, but made the chairman of the NDA parliamentary committee. In the meantime, Narendra Modi was doing his best to cleanse himself of the taint of the 2002 riots. Gujarat was consistently growing, investors were flocking in, and his own personal clout was now beginning to overshadow the party in the state. No further proof was required of his growing popularity, than when the UK government decided to end its boycott of Modi, and open negotiations about business possibilities in Gujarat. The urban middles-class voter, tired of buying milk at Rs. 40/liter and pulses at Rs 120/kg, knew that Rahul Baba and his trite 'Discover India' tour just won't cut any more. Modi thumped the opposition in Gujarat in 2013, and is now looking set to give the ruling dispensation a mighty tussle next year.
This brings us to the latest, and probably the last controversy, Advani would ever stir. Man, this guys career is a roll-call of controversies, right from his early career to the last elections, so this sounds odd to me writing it! Advani is hoping that Modi would be unacceptable to the majority of the NDA alliance, which would be the need of the hour post-elections. The BJP can hardly dream of winning 272 seats on its own, even if it wins every seat in UP, Gujarat, MP, and Chattisgarh. However, it doesn't need to. Previous experience dictates that the fickle regional parties, that have no loyalty to anybody, but only their self-interest in mind, wouldn't mind supporting the BJP in lieu of rewarding portfolios, if it can get to the 200-220 mark on its own. That would mean that the urban voter would need to vote heavily in favor of the BJP, more so than it already does, in order to make that possibility come true. As stated earlier, Modi has the public in his hands right now. He has an agenda, even though critics would argue that it is simplistic in nature, but an agenda nonetheless, to give a boost to the slumbering economy, and regain the faith of the public that actually pays taxes and faces power cuts and water shortages in return. Advani on the other hand, has no appeal among the youth, many of whom will be turning out at the voting booth for the first time next year, and more importantly, already had his shot at immortality in 2009. The fire that Advani displayed in 1991, seems to have vanished altogether (not that there is anything unnatural about that happening with age). Modi is just firing up on the national stage!
There appears to be a ceasefire called for the moment, but the NDA alliance is already starting to fizzle. JD(U)'s impending departure will leave a deep dent in the party's prospect in Bihar, a state that voted in large numbers for the alliance in the last election. Moreover, both the BJP and the JD(U) run the risk of cutting into each other's vote share, much to the apparent joy of the RJD, and maybe Congress. The message from the BJP cadres is clear. Modi's ascension is a risk worth taking, for another defeat next year would severely dent any hopes of making a comeback to power in the future. For us masses, this will condemn us to a long period of the Gandhi family rule, one that seems akin to surrendering your democratic choice at the doorsteps of a dynasty.
PS: Summer is a great time for going to the movies and picking up a book. Here are two personal recommendations in each category.
http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/8908.World_War_Z
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